There is Still Hope for Cassel and the Pats

"Oh boy."

That's about all I could say after the end of the Pats game Sunday evening. That and, "What just happened?" It was 10-10 going into the 3rd quarter then the next thing I knew it was 23-10. I guess that's what a couple of costly turnovers can do to a team.

This season has been a rollercoaster ride, and to be honest it has left me feeling a little woozy going into Week 14. As it stands now the Patriots are 7-5 and in second place in the AFC East behind the 8-4 Bretts, excuse me, Jets. The Pats have four games left and basically, they need to win out if they want a chance to make the playoffs.

The next two games are away on the West coast in Seattle and then in Oakland. These are two very winnable games and I would be surprised if the Patriots lost either one of these. The Pats then come home for a game against the Arizona Cardinals before they go to Buffalo to finish the regular season. With all due respect to the Cardinals, the Patriots could easily win the next four games, putting them in a position to make the playoffs.

Unfortunately for the Patriots, the Jets have a pretty easy schedule as well. They go out to San Francisco, come home against Buffalo, go back out to play Seattle, and finish the season home against Miami. The Jets will really have to screw this up to miss the playoffs. They didn't look good against the Broncos but I'd be surprised if the Pats took over first place from them at this point. As long as they beat either the Bills or Dolphins and both NFC teams (who are weak), they will clinch the division.

No, no, Pats fans. The division does not look good for us this year. However, all is not lost. As the tears dripped from my eyes onto my keyboard until I nearly short-circuited the damn thing, I remembered about the wild card berth.

I frantically looked at who was currently in the lead for the wild card. First team- Colts. Dangit! They have the head-to-head match up against us and to top it off they play Cincinnati and Detroit over the next two weeks. That leaves one… final… spot.

Boom.

As it stands now the Baltimore Ravens have the final wild card spot available. They currently stand at 8-4, one game better than the 7-5 Patriots. That's fine. I'll take it. But wait, it gets much more interesting.

The Ravens' remaining schedule is home against Washington, home against Pittsburgh, away in Dallas, and they finish up home against Jacksonville. Those opponents combine for a winning percentage of .604% while the Patriots' opponents combine for a winning percentage of .375%.

I slaved over these numbers so please stay with me here and try to follow. The Patriots still have a couple of ways they can get into the playoffs:

Scenario 1: The Patriots go 4-0, end the season at 11-5 The Ravens go 2-2, end the season at 10-6 Patriots clinch Wild Card

Why this is possible: The Pats can definitely go 4-0. Arizona won't be easy, but it's a home game so I'm taking the Pats here. The Ravens put up a fight against Pittsburgh earlier in the year, but Pitt is definitely the better team and I'm taking them. Also, going into Dallas with a healthy Romo playing and winning there is no easy task, so I'm taking Dallas there.

Scenario 2: The Patriots go 3-1, end the season at 10-6 The Ravens go 2-2, end the season at 10-6 Patriots Clinch Wild Card if…

Why this is possible: This is only possible depending upon who the Ravens lose to, and even then it is too early to tell if it is possible. I'll break it down like this: First of all the Ravens and Patriots didn't play against each other this year, so there is no head-to-head tiebreaker. If the Ravens go 2-2 but beat either the Steelers or Jaguars, they will win the tiebreaker because they will have a better conference record. If the Ravens lose to the Steelers and Jaguars and beat the Redskins and the Cowboys, they will have an identical record to the Patriots in the conference as well. This means that the tiebreaker goes to the best win-loss-tie percentage in common games played, with a minimum of four games played. These teams do not have four common games played so they can't use that method. The next step is to compare the strength of victory, and this is where I think the decision will be made. The way to compare the strength of victory according to James Adler is "figured by calculating the combined winning percentage of the opponents a team has beaten." Basically what this means is for every team the Patriots beat, take that team's final record and add it to all the other final records of teams that the Patriots beat and get a final winning percentage that way. Do the same thing with the Baltimore Ravens. The team with the higher winning percentage goes on to the playoffs (Don't forget the Ravens beat the Bengals twice).

So there you have it folks, two possible scenarios for the Patriots. Let me sum it up easily for you: Pray the Patriots win, and pray the Ravens lose.

Oh and while you're at it, pray that the Dolphins don't go 4-0. Don't ask.