The latest figures from retail analysts at Kantar suggest that the surge in GLP-1 weight-loss injections is starting to hit supermarket tills across the UK. As more households incorporate drugs like Ozempic into their routines, grocery volumes have recorded their first year-on-year decline this year. Below, we explore how this medical trend is reshaping consumer behaviour, what categories are most affected, and how retailers and brands might respond.
Rapid Uptake of GLP-1 Injections
According to Kantar’s recent data, the proportion of UK households with at least one member using a GLP-1 drug rose from 2.3% to 4.1% in just twelve months. This nearly doubled uptake is significant when considering the scale of the market:
- Overall grocery volumes fell by 0.4% in the last four weeks—marking the first annual drop so far in 2025.
- GLP-1’s active ingredient, mimicking natural hormones, helps users feel fuller for longer and reduces calorie intake substantially.
- Fraser McKevitt, head of retail analysis at Kantar, warns that “weight-loss drugs have the potential to steer choices at the till.”
Categories Feeling the Squeeze
Consumption patterns show that people on GLP-1 therapies are actively avoiding certain “host” foods:
- Chocolates and Crisps : Four in five users surveyed plan to cut down on these snack staples.
- Biscuits : Nearly 75% intend to reduce their biscuit intake, hitting brands in this sector.
- Peanut Butter and Other Accompaniments : Foods commonly spread on bread may see lower demand as overall bread consumption dips.
As users modify longstanding snacking habits, supermarkets face reduced sales in both premium and budget ranges of these products. In some regions, this decline translates directly into empty shelf space and promotional markdowns to clear slow-moving stock.
Calorie Cuts and Appetite Changes
Research by weight-management service Voy indicates that individuals on GLP-1 injections often reduce their daily calorie intake by 25–35%. Key takeaways include:
- A natural suppression of appetite means fewer impulse trips to the biscuit aisle.
- Less overall shopping volume per household, given reduced need to stock high-calorie convenience foods.
- Potential shift towards lower-calorie, higher-protein or plant-based alternatives.
With such significant calorie reductions, the ripple effect on weekly grocery baskets is clear—and likely to intensify as more patients begin treatment.
Market Size and Future Growth
The weight-loss drug market has ballooned to around $50 billion (£36 billion) by end-2024, and Morgan Stanley forecasts a doubling by 2030. Despite anticipated supply constraints, Novo Nordisk expects Ozempic revenues to grow by 14–16% in 2025 alone. These figures underscore a fundamental shift in consumer priorities—from indulgence to medical-guided health management.
Young Adults Leading the Trend
Mintel’s research highlights that 18–34-year-olds show the highest interest in GLP-1 prescriptions. Specific findings reveal:
- Nearly nine in ten young adults actively manage their weight, compared to 73% across all age groups.
- Almost half of 18–34s have either used or expressed strong interest in prescription weight-loss medications.
This demographic tilt suggests supermarkets may see a sustained reduction in certain categories as younger shoppers continue prioritising drug-assisted weight control over traditional dietary patterns.
Long-Term Impact on Shopping Habits
While GLP-1 injections deliver rapid appetite suppression, questions remain about how long new eating habits will stick. If users revert to pre-treatment snacking once injections cease, grocery volumes may recover. However, anecdotal reports indicate many maintain healthier patterns even post-treatment.
Retailers face a strategic decision: will they adapt product assortments now in anticipation of lasting change, or wait for definitive consumption trends? Early adopters of healthier ranges or lower-calorie lines could gain a competitive edge.
Responsibility and Brand Messaging
With weight-loss drugs gaining traction, brands and supermarkets must tread carefully:
- Avoid exploiting body image anxieties : Marketing should emphasise balanced lifestyles rather than quick fixes.
- Promote sustainable habits : Encourage shoppers to combine medical treatment with healthy eating and exercise.
- Communicate risks and side effects : Transparent labeling and in-store information on weight-loss medications can help consumers make informed choices.
Chantel Kennaugh, Kantar’s nutrition expert, stresses that “host” foods depend on complementary categories—brands must innovate in low-calorie substitutes to retain customer loyalty.
Preparing for the New Grocery Landscape
As GLP-1 injections reshape appetites and shopping behaviour, the grocery industry enters uncharted territory. From reduced snack sales to emerging demands for high-protein, low-calorie options, supermarkets and brands will need to reassess their assortments and marketing strategies to meet evolving customer priorities.
In the coming months, tracking the interplay between prescription drug use and retail data will be critical. Supermarkets that align early with health-focused trends may capture new growth, while those slow to adapt risk falling behind in a rapidly changing food landscape.
