New Poll Exposes Deep Cracks in Labour’s 2024 Majority
Fresh research from Thinks Insight & Strategy reveals a startling trend: 52 percent of those who voted Labour in July 2024 now admit there is a “good” or “very high” chance they might back the Liberal Democrats or the Green Party at the next general election. With Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s government nine months into office, the findings underscore a precarious coalition that may already be fraying.
Key Numbers Shake Up Westminster
According to the online survey of 2,081 UK adults conducted between May 5 and 8, 2025:
- 52 percent of Labour’s 2024 voters are weighing a switch to the Lib Dems or Greens.
- Just 25 percent of the same group are considering Nigel Farage’s Reform UK instead.
- Among those looking at the Lib Dems/Greens, 55 percent say there’s still a “very high” or “good” chance they’d vote Labour again in an immediate election.
- Only 15 percent of Lib Dem/Green-leaning ex-Labour voters say they would never return to Labour.
- In contrast, 36 percent of Labour 2024 supporters now eyeing Reform UK say there’s “no chance at all” they’d vote Labour again.
These figures suggest that while more Labour supporters are flirting with left-of-centre alternatives, they remain easier to woo back than the smaller—but far more committed—group drifting toward Reform UK.
Strategic Tightrope for the Starmer Government
Ben Shimshon, CEO of Thinks Insight & Strategy, warns that Starmer’s administration is “walking a tightrope.” His analysis explains:
- Labour’s majority, although large, rests on a shallow foundation.
- The voters attracted in 2024 now reflect a fragile coalition split between those on the centre-left and a smaller faction tempted by right-wing populism.
- Efforts to appease Reform UK supporters risk alienating those who initially backed Labour for progressive policies.
“These results illustrate the tightrope this Labour government are walking,” Shimshon told PoliticsHome. “The coalition that they assembled in 2024 looks very precarious, only nine months later.”
Left-Flirt Voters vs. Reform Loyalists
Digging deeper, the poll shows two distinct voter profiles within Labour’s base:
- Lib Dem/Green-Leaning Ex-Labour Voters:
- More numerous but open to returning—55 percent say they’d likely vote Labour again.
- Only 15 percent are fully lost to Labour forever.
- Reform UK-Inclined Ex-Labour Voters:
- Smaller group (25 percent) but highly committed—36 percent promise never to vote Labour again.
- 81 percent of Reform UK’s 2024 backers say there’s a “very high” chance they’ll re-elect Farage’s party in an immediate poll.
Shimshon points out that while the left-leaning defectors might “hold their noses” and return to Labour, Reform UK supporters are far more likely to view their shift as permanent.
Immigration, White Paper and Cabinet Anxiety
The timing of this poll coincides with heated debates inside Labour over the government’s immigration policy. Starmer’s administration published its long-awaited Immigration White Paper this week, aiming to tighten rules and curb inflows. Initial YouGov figures show public backing for tougher controls, but many Labour MPs fear the move panders too heavily to right-wing voters.
Shadow Cabinet members and grassroots activists have openly warned that focusing on immigration could push centre-left supporters toward the Lib Dems and Greens. Yet ministers argue they must demonstrate progress on border security to satisfy swing voters and maintain a working majority.
“The more Labour works to shore up the Reform-inclined portion of their coalition,” Shimshon cautions, “the more likely it is that their policies and pronouncements will harden the concerns of those drifting toward Lib Dems and Greens.”
Poll Methodology and Background
Thinks Insight & Strategy has tracked public opinion since 2019. This latest survey was conducted online with representative weighting for age, gender, ethnicity, socio-economic background and region, as well as to match the 2024 General Election result among respondents who said they voted.
Political analysts note that Labour rode a centrist wave to victory in 2024, capturing moderate Tories and progressive voters alike. But the coalition’s durability now hinges on policy choices that may alienate key segments on both flanks.
What Comes Next? Risks and Remedies
Labour strategists are digesting the implications:
- Targeted Outreach: Launching local campaigns to reassure centre-left backers that progressive causes remain central to Labour’s agenda.
- Bridge-Building: Framing immigration reforms as part of a broader narrative on economic security and fair access to public services.
- Policy Balance: Pairing tougher border measures with green investment and social welfare initiatives to keep Lib Dem/Green-leaning voters engaged.
Without a deft balancing act, Labour risks repeating the fate of previous administrations: losing mid-term momentum and leaving the door open for minor parties to erode its support from both left and right.